The recent warming of sea surface temperatures indicates that there is an increasing chance of a weak El Niño occurring later this year, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
Neutral conditions, where there is neither La Niña nor El Niño, will continue until August, but with likelihood of El Niño increasing up to 65 percent during the end of the year.
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, causing drought in most parts of the Philippines.
The previous El Niño occurrence in 2015-2016 was among the strongest events alongside the big El Niño episodes in 1972-1973, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998.
This August, two to three cyclones usually enter or form inside the country’s area of responsibility, which either move west or northwest of Luzon, based on the PAGASA’s historical record.
Habagat remains at its peak where tropical cyclone activity is at its maximum, PAGASA said.
Generally near normal rainfall is likely in Luzon and Visayas, while rainfall will be below near normal in general portions of Mindanao next month.
This Wednesday, the southwest monsoon will continue to affect the western sections of Luzon and Visayas, bringing cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over Western Visayas and northern Palawan.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers due to localized thunderstorms. (Ellalyn de Vera-Ruiz)