By NIÑO N. LUCES
LEGAZPI CITY, Albay – Mayon Volcano may continue to exhibit dangerous activities for the next two to three months.
This is what Ed Laguerta, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) resident volcanologist here, shared to media Monday.
Laguerta explained that based on historical accounts, Mayon’s unrest, including those that were followed by eruptions, usually last at least two to three months.
“Babalikan natin ‘yung ugali ng Mayon, kung ano ang ugali ng Mayon noon ganun din ngayon, may short, may long. So we assume the long period kasi safety pa rin ng taumbayan ‘yung pinag-uusapan d’yan. Two to three months ang pinaka-matagal ng Mayon. Pero may maiksi naman, kaya nga sana, matapos na ito ng maaga,” he said.
He also described two scenarios that may occur in the coming days.
“Scenario 1, Mayon will continue its lava fountaining including the quite extrusion of lava flow into the Miisi gully and Bonga gullies. The present activities could be similar to the 1993 eruption. If the current condition continues with no measurable indication of change, alert level 4 will be maintained over Mayon.”
“Scenario 2, if lava degasses sufficiently to plug the vent and over-pressurize the volcanic conduit, allowing magma ascent rates to drastically increase, an explosive eruption is imminent; scenario 2 is similar to the 2000 to 2001, 1984 and 1968 eruptions; Lava flow phase followed by an explosive eruption phase, and from this, alert level 5 will be raised over Mayon,” Laguerta explained.
When asked about the possibility of scenario 2 ever happening, Laguerta said, “Mahirap sabihin kung ilang porsyento.
Mag-a-assume kayo nyan. But the higher probability is scenario 1, which is already happening now. Eto lang ang problema, baka tumagal ito kasi pakonti-konti inilalabas ni Mayon ‘yung magma,” he said.